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Study Suggests Candidates' Immigration Views Rarely Match Supporters'

By Sean Walker - 16 Apr 2008
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A study published by the Center for Immigration Studies reveals that between 30 to 60 percent of supporters of a particular U.S. presidential candidate share the same viewpoint regarding immigration reform policy as their candidate of choice.

The study, conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, an independent polling company, revealed that only 31 percent of Sen. John McCain's supporters would "allow illegal immigrants to stay" in the United States - a position frequently expressed by the GOP nominee.

According to the poll, most voters were unable to identify which candidate best represented their views on immigration. Only 34 percent of McCain supporters "correctly identified their candidate as favoring eventual citizenship for illegal immigrants who meet certain requirements." Likewise, only 42 percent of Clinton supporters and 52 percent of Obama supporters correctly identified their candidates' stance on the issue.

Such findings should not come as a surprise, some experts say.

"Candidate positions evolve over time and voters make a mistake when they take positions as 'static,'" said Jeremy Pope, a professor of political science. "Positions on some issues may not change, but as the facts on the ground change many politicians alter their views."

Pope likened most politicians to John Maynard Keynes when they "change their position" on an issue.

"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" Keynes said.

Democratic similarities between candidates and their supporters were slightly less, though still alarmingly high. Of the Clinton supporters polled, 45 percent lined up with her view that "illegal immigrants should stay," while just over 60 percent of Obama fans believed the same principle.

According to the poll, of the Republicans surveyed, 34 percent believe McCain "best describes the approach" that would "allow illegal immigrants to stay," while 35 percent believe McCain's campaign "best describes" the notion that would "enforce the law and cause [illegal immigrants] to leave."

To McCain's credit, 21 percent of supporters were "not sure" his policies matched their beliefs on immigration reform.

The survey also found demoralizing results for legislators planning on presenting pro-amnesty bills at the state and federal governments next year. Over 60 percent of Republicans surveyed, and 36 percent of Democrats would "oppose legislation that offers citizenship to illegal immigrants," according to the report.

To see the complete survey results, go to the Web site, www.cis.org/articles/2008/voter_release_08.html.







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